The Quantitative Peace

RAND and Rational Choice Theory

Soldiers of Reason by Alex Abella focuses on the history of the RAND Corporation, a government-sponsored think tank that was highly influential in setting the underpinnings of U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War.  In terms that sometimes border on conspiracy theory, Abella casts RAND as the primary strategic force driving American foreign policy since the end of World War II. But Abella's account of RAND drives far deeper than just another analysis of Cold War foreign policy or academic assault on U.S. empire.  He mounts a fundamental critique of rational choice theory itself.

Praying for an Orange Couch

After reading Youssef Cohen’s Radicals, Reformers, and Reactionaries for my summer course, I was reminded of what we mean when we assume rationality in rational choice models. We assume rationality in decision making, that individuals will attempt to maximize their utility given their preferences and the constraints that exist. There are a few important components in rational choice models, however, that we do not make any assumptions and judgments about.

First, in terms of preferences, we merely require that they are transitive. We do not judge their quality. If the actors prefer to buy a bright orange couch for their home over an expensive, designer made couch, as long as those preferences are transitive, we do not make any judgment of the quality of their choices. Further, in terms of beliefs, we do not have to assume that there are rational and have some basis in reality. If someone thinks that praying will make them more likely to get an orange couch instead of going to the store and buying one, this type of belief can be taken into account in a rational choice model.

The point is: someone can make a rational choice based on seemingly bizarre preferences and irrational beliefs as long as they believe the result of that choice will result in utility maximization.

Not judging preferences and allowing unrealistic beliefs to be tied into the model allows rational choice models to explain a large variety of behavior, from voting for a bill in a legislature to suicide bombing. Rational choice models may not be able to adequately explain where bizarre preferences come from, or why unrealistic beliefs are formed, but it can explain why individuals make the choices they do when both of those conditions are met.

China, Sudan, and the British Empire

As the opening of the Olympics in Beijing nears, NPR is running a few series on the foundations and future of China's global power within the context of the country's history and economic position.  Today's installment, "China and Sudan: A Marriage Sealed in Oil, History," is the first of stories that will outline China's influence in Africa.  The story recounts the tale of Major General Charles Gordon of Great Britain.  He worked to secure trading lines with China, and later to manage Britain's colonial possession at the time, Sudan. 

The relationship between Sudan and China is widely believed to be a marriage anointed in oil: China needs it and Sudan has it, and the two have been in business for years. But the Sudanese say their bond with China runs deeper than any oil well and goes back more than 100 years — to a man who proved the adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

This is a history that is perhaps less familiar to those of us schooled in North America, but it's a story screaming to be used as an illustrative case of imperial extension, international trade, and economic alliance.  NPR's series on China's Rising Power in Africa will continue in four more parts, all surely as fascinating as the first.  Also not to be missed is the seven part series about China's growing influence in all regions of the globe.

Over 100 Places that May Fund Your Research

Academic Productivity has recently posted a great find from the Online Education Database: 100 places to find funding for your research:

Whether you're researching the habits of marine life, ancient texts or just a new way to market products, you'll likely need some funding to get your studies underway. The Internet is a great place to start looking for sources of funding, and we've put together a list here of a hundred or so places where you can get some assistance for your next big research project.

Strategies for Writing: Advice from the UNC Writing Center

Ever the connoisseur of writing strategy and style, I have encountered enough advice and discussion that I could probably change my dissertation topic to the analysis of the modi operandi of academic writers.  I'll stick with my current dissertation topic for now, but some of this advice needs to be shared with as many  interested people as possible, such as that from the Writing Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.  The handouts they have created offer valuable advice for academic writers at all levels.  Of the most useful for my purposes has been the handout on writing dissertations, of course.

Receive some enlightening advice after the jump.

The Dark Knight and Game Theory

If you have not already seen The Dark Knight, then you should read this post at a later time as to avoid spoilers after the jump.  Otherwise, follow the jump for a game theoretic discussion derived from the movie that has already broken two box office records for both best midnight opening and top first day revenue.  I personally enjoyed the movie immensely, but that discussion does not follow.

So, officially, consider this a spoiler alert for what follows.

Manual Data Collection in the age of Computers

I am beginning a new data collection project that requires the manual coding of data collected from various sources in print and online.  As I start this project, I am tasked with how to build a master record of all the data I collect in the process.  I have worked on projects that used extensive paper coding forms that were later filed away only to be retrieved when appropriate.  This serves as a safeguard to both checking original coding decision, errors in the database, and any other information the coders found while researching the topic at hand.  Alternatively, other projects had an evolving excel spreadsheet that itself was the master record - duplicate copies served as a safeguard against accidents while the final form only existed when the researchers stopped coding.  Finally, projects that are entirely automated tend to generate their own database that the researchers can then use to extract useful information into a final dataset for examination.

For this project, I decided to make a separate, master database that then will be used to generate data sets as needed.  Any changes will be documented in the master set and stripping out coding variables (last updated, side notes, etc.) that are otherwise irrelevant to people using the data.  Thus, the final versions will be tab delimited for general consumption, produce in Stata, and a R version while the master remains in a different format for official changes.

More after the jump; those interested, there are screenshots and I attempt to elicit ideas for more efficient mechanisms to collect and store data...

More from SSRN: Publishing Advice for Graduate Students

It appears that I might be a little late to the game judging by the Technorati reactions; however, that will not stop me now or in the near future.  After some initial prompting from Richard Frank, this stellar introductory piece for graduate students posted back in January (universalized for all disciplines) details four avenues for publication: book reviews, conference presentations, articles and replies, and books.  Abstract:

Graduate students often lack concrete advice on publishing. This essay is an attempt to fill this important gap. Advice is given on how to publish everything from book reviews to articles, replies to book chapters, and how to secure both edited book contracts and authored monograph contracts, along with plenty of helpful tips and advice on the publishing world (and how it works) along the way in what is meant to be a comprehensive, concrete guide to publishing that should be of tremendous value to graduate students working in any area of the humanities and social sciences.

For those who are already familiar with the publishing game, this article may not be overly useful - but passing it on to others who could use a basic instruction manual would benefit.  Not all of the advice is germane to every journal and discipline (for example, it seems less journals do actual paper submissions as suggested by the article section, but dealing with e-mail submissions are covered elsewhere) - however, lacking specific advice in every section is to be expected from anything less than a multvolume book series.  It is currently one of the most downloaded articles for Political Science on SSRN and worth the read.

A Newly Found Appreciation for the UN?

When I took my 10 year old brother for a tour of the UN the other day, I was not surprised when he insisted that the UN was actually an art museum. Even with my limited experience in the IR subfield (which includes one graduate level seminar and frequent exchanges with colleagues who study IR), I have come to realize that the UN is not considered a "serious" force in domestic politics around the world. Even using the word "force" seems inappropriate, because states can ignore the UN's rules and very few of them are actually punished for doing so. So my brother's perception that the UN was merely a place to observe statutes, photographs, and paintings from around the world seemed not far too off for me.

After the tour (in which my brother made fun  of me for whispering the answers to the tour guide's questions and then asking her to clarify what she meant by country when asking what the smallest country in the world was- she actually meant state), I found a potential new found appreciation for the UN. The tour guide informed us that the five permanent members of the Security Council (US, Soviet Union/ Russia, China, UK, and France) made a pact that they would not go to war with one another as long as each of them had a veto in the Security Council's decision making process.

In light of the Cold War, this was important information. Could having a veto over decisions made in a seemingly meaningless international organization actually help keep major powers from going to war? Would such an agreement be analogous to agreements made within military regimes, where branches of the military agree to equally share power in exchange for peace? I do not know; like I said, I am not an IR scholar. But I think this pact could have had potential effects on the decisions of these major powers to go to war during the Cold War; it may in fact helped prevent a major world war from breaking out. (Of course, mutually assured destruction could have been the reason too).

 

Sounds like a Comprehensive Exam Question

A recent NY Times article pointed out a literature issue in the field of biology, and I began to wonder if political scientists have the same problem. The problem: even though Charles Darwin's On the Origin of Species laid the foundation for Modern Biology, it is surprisingly uncommon for biologists to actually read the book (although they still cite it). Olivia Judson from the NY Times admits that the book is a little outdated (it was written 150 years ago); however, she argues that biologists can still learn some lessons from it, so they should still read it.

Hence, I was thinking about what books/ articles have laid the foundation for the field of political science, and whether we still cite and read them. As I was thinking about this, the light became dim as if I was sitting in a room with florescent lights, my head began to hurt, and it sounded as though a fire alarm went off. The train of thought obviously triggered a dark memory of comprehensive exam week.

I came up with a list, which is obviously not exhaustive, of books that laid the foundation for modern political science, and were written during or before the 1960s. I have read most of these books/ articles, even though some were painful (really, I did read most of them). I think that most of these should still be read because what we know about politics today is built upon the findings and arguments in these books and articles.

Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War; Machiavelli, The Prince; Hobbes, The Leviathan; The Federalist Papers;  Hotelling, Stability in Competition; Max Weber, Politics as a Vocation; Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations;  Waltz, Man, State, and War; The American Voter; V.O. Key, Political Parties and Interest Groups; Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy; Riker and Ordeshook, Calculus of Voting; Olson, The Logic of Collective Action; Coase, The Problem of Social Cost