The Quantitative Peace

Linear Time and Games

I am glad to see someone has taken the opening episode of Deep Space 9 and created a clip of one of the more theoretically interesting segments of the episode.  Granted, this was uploaded 4 years ago, but I had not come across a short version of the clip until now. 

I watched the show when I was in middle/high school and had the opportunity to rewatch it all the way through when we picked up the complete series a few years ago.  While the longer story arcs are compelling and the show gains some decent steam in the 4 and 5th season, much of it is not digestable for a class (unless I am teaching "The Politics of Star Trek"). Unlike traditional Star Trek series (Original, ST:TNG), much of the better stories are not episodic.

The clip features Commander (not quite a Captain yet) Sisko explaining to wormhole aliens the utility of living in linear time - the aliens experience time simultaneously.

 

 

With the proper context, this can make it into a game theory lecture.

 

Sci-Fi Poli Sci, Episode I: Regime Types Across Sci-Fi Universes

Assuming that one is looking for them, it is fairly easy to find internet arguments that stem from comparisons among and between science fiction universes, and a great many of these arguments center on comparing governments within those universes. Which government is more democratic: Star Wars' Galactic Republic or Star Trek's United Federation? Who is more repressive: Firefly's Alliance or Star Wars' Galactic Empire? How do the military assets of the Stargate universe stack up against those found in all of the other sci-fi universes? Indeed, given that nerd culture is now nearly synonymous with pop culture, these conversations seem to be quite common, particularly if one regularly eats lunch with the bloggers at The Quantitative Peace.  However, while some political scientists and economists have tried to answer questions that have clearly spawned from science fiction, I am unaware of any that have attempted to apply some of the more commonly used quantitative measurements in political science to the governments seen in such universes. Therefore, this post represents a first attempt to apply quantititative measures from political science to the polities envisioned in some of the most beloved science fiction franchises, in an attempt to answer the question: Which sci-fi governments are the most democratic, and which are the most autocratic? In the paragraphs below, I take a close look at a few sci-fi governments and use a couple of the more popular measures of regime type to compare them.

While this is mostly an attempt to have some Friday fun with political science measurement, I do not think it is an entirely frivolous exercise.  If our measurement schemes are valid, then they should apply quite nicely across regimes, even imagined ones.  Furthermore, as someone who regularly teaches classes about quantitative research in political science, I think there may be instructional advantages to using fictional regimes to introduce students to the methodological challenges associated with developing valid quantitative measures of such things as human rights, regime type, military capabilities, etc.  In fact, the use of fictional governments may allow the instructor to escape the various normative hang-ups and national attachments that can often impede undergraduates' willingness to pursue strict coding guidelines in quantitative data collection.  Thus, to quote Paul Krugman (1978, 2), "while the subject of this [post] is silly," the content should make sense, and as such, the post should be viewed as a "serious analysis of a ridiculous subject."

A Rare Glimpse Inside North Korea

In 2006 National Geographic produced a documentary that gives viewers a rare glimpse into everyday life in North Korea. In the documentary, Inside North Korea, an eye doctor travels to the isolationist country to perform surgery on 1,000 patients in 10 days. The doctor convinces the government to allow a camera crew to document his work. However, the camera crew really wanted to document everyday life in the country. Once inside, the crew took every opportunity they got to film the everyday lives of ordinary North Koreans.

The film is really compelling, as it demonstrates how much control the North Korean government has over its people. Reading about how Kim Jong-Il controls the country is nothing like actually witnessing it. Below I discuss some of the key segments from the documentary that were quite surprising.

1. Concentration camps

The North Korean government has set up several work camps for prisoners and their families. According to a North Korean defector who used to be a guard at such a camp, once people enter the camps, they never leave. They die there either from overwork, starvation, or disease. There are even children born in the camps who live their whole lives there without ever leaving.

The camps are obviously a way for the North Korean government to maintain tight control over the population. Since people can be punished for family members' so called transgressions towards the government, it gives people the incentive to ensure that (1) they encourage their family members to respect the government and (2) not to make a mistake, as their family members will also be punished. Furthermore, these rules could encourage family members to turn on one another in order to avoid punishment for another's transgressions.

2. Guarding the DMZ

The documentary devotes an entire segment to discussing a normal day on the DMZ. It focuses in particular on a location where North and South Korean guards literally stand on each side of the border. On the North Korean side, there are three guards- two that face and stare at each other, and one that faces into North Korean. According to a guard on the South Korean side of the border, the two North Korean guards that stare at each other do so in order to ensure neither defects and crosses over into South Korea. Furthermore, the guard that faces North Korea does so to ensure no North Korean defects and runs into South Korea.

3. A cult of personality

Either the North Korean people really adore Kim Jong-Il, or they are really good at pretending. In the documentary the crew never met anyone who did not continuously sing praise for the dictator. Their answers to the many questions asked of them were always the most positively extreme responses they could give. For example, when the crew asked one North Korean which of the many pictures of Kim Jong-Il they liked best, they responded, "I like all the pictures the best." Furthermore, although many North Koreans often do not have access to adequate food and medical services, they still do not place blame on the government for these problems. In fact, they believe they would be worse off if Kim Jong-il was not their leader. It is interesting (and disheartening) to see how the North Korean government has effectively prevented its population from being able to judge the actions of the government and hold it accountable.

Gift List for Political Scientists, 2010

Mind Your Decisions has done an annual gift list for economists for the last few years, and Presh just put together his 2010 list.  Using his list as inspiration, I have compiled my own list of possible gifts for Political Scientists. Given my proclivity for strategic leisure, I believe I can construct this with some authority on the matter.

 

Board Games - We attempt to host a fortnightly game night, sometimes the evening is started with an appropriate movie, but often the board game will be the center of it all.  As political scientists, we have tried a few different ones, and I have a few suggestions based on what you are looking for:

• Settlers of Catan (Amazon) - This is a gateway board game.  The rules are simple and feature a Euro-style board that changes with each game and enables or disables particular strategies.  The main components of the game are about development, production, and trade.  The base game suits 2-4 players, and there is a 5-6 player expansion that can be bought. If you have grown beyond the base game, then expanding the game's scope can be done.  Being political scientists, we have favored the Cities and Knights expansion that involves collective action problems and defense.  Finally, if you are a Catan veteran and want to up your game, there is the nearly $500 version, 3d Catan.
• Carcassonne (Amazon, itunes) - A tile based game that, again, has simple rules, but offers some deep strategy components.  The game is based around producing cities, farms, and roads - and claiming such objects using "Followers" or "meeples".  There are several expansions to the game and even has an iphone/ipod version that can be played online.
• Civilization (Amazon) - based on the popular video game (see below for that suggestion), up to four players compete to construct a civilization and win the game through one of four victory paths (military domination, culture, economics, or science).  While I have yet to play the game, I did pick it up on Black Friday and expect to enjoy it.

Card Games

• Saboteur (Boardgamegeek) - A card game where up to 10 players are dwarves mining for gold.  A percentage of the players are potential Saboteur who, secretly, want to prevent the dwarves from getting the gold.  A game of strategy and incomplete information leaves player guessing who they should stop and who they should enable.
• Bang (Amazon) - An Italian game that is also based on incomplete information.  One individual is known to be the sheriff, 1-3 people are deputies (unknown), 1-3 people are bandits (unknown) and 1-2 people are renegades (unknown).  The object of the game for the sheriff and the deputies is to kill all the bandits and renegades, the bandits just want to just the sheriff (though killing deputies does have benefits during the course of the game), and the renegade wants to be the last person(s) standing.  Half the game is figuring out who is on your side and who should be a target for your guns.  Quite a fun game that can be played by multiple ages and groups of people.  Michael Flynn reminded that I should have this up here as well.

Video Games

• Civilization 5 (Amazon - PC) - Following a long line of civilization games, this has simplified some of the extensive rules and development paths that were found in civilization 3 and 4.  This has made it more penetrable for the new user or casual player.  A game of Civilization starts in 4000 BC and you progress, controlling one of the major civilizations it offers (list here).  While offering a form of simulation, it is a game and the object is often to win.  It offers multiple paths to victories as the players control construction, expansion, civic policy, economic policy, science policy and progression, diplomacy, and military strategy.  I can and have lost hours playing this game as it has tremendous replay value.  While the game does offer multiplayer, the speed at which the game is played makes it less than ideal unless both players have a day or two to kill.
• Bioshock (Amazon) - Recommended by Michael Flynn, a dystopian Randian future sets the stage for this first person shooter.  Likewise, I would consider picking up the new Fallout (Amazon) game. 
• Starcraft II (Amazon) - A real time strategy game that is conducting from the perspective of humans versus the Protoss and the Zerg.  This is the first of a series of three games in the Starcraft II line. 

Books/Reading

• An e-reader (Kindle) - While still not ideal for textbooks, the amount of time I can now read while traveling or just througout the day without lugging large books has improved tremendously.  I am partial to the kindle given that it was my first and I sync it across my iPhone and computer in case I do not have it with me.  
• The Workflow of Data Analysis Using Stata (Amazon) - My .do files are messier than they should be and I have been slowly going through Long's book to try improve my work for replication.  
• The Black Swan (Amazon) - Another recommendation by Michael Flynn, a book based on probability in real life and the fixation on outliers.

 

Movies

• The Dark Knight (Amazon- Blu-ray/Special Edition normal DVD) - Perhaps an obvious choice.
• The Princess Bride (Amazon - Blu-ray) - Another movie filled with game theory and appropriate for viewing with your academic peers. 
• Dr. Strangelove (Amazon - Blu-ray) - This section might as well be called "Game Theory Movies" as this serves as a classic for the use of game theory, especially the grim trigger strategy. Julie VanDusky-Allen reminded me to add this to the list.
• The Watchmen (Amazon - Ultimate Cut, Normal DVD) - The implications of a world where a super hero is America's deterrent to aggression and nuclear confrontation paints a dramatically different universe.  In this alternate universe of the 1980s, Nixon is elected to a third term, the United States won Vietnam, and masked vigilantes have been banned from fighting crime after a series of police riots.  The conclusion of the movie and the motivation of the main villain can fill a class period or two with discussion (which I won't spoil on this post).

 

Television

• The West Wing (Amazon) - A must see for anyone vaguely interested in the political process.  I have forced this upon a few political scientists myself and have yet to hear anything but glee from watching the series.
• The Wire (Amazon) - I have yet to see this series, but it was recommended by Matt DiGiuseppe as a great show that seems to be enjoyed by political scientists.  It, apparently, contains many instances of suboptimal policy outcomes that are trumped by individual's ambition as well as many cases of Realism-esque behavior between gang members.

Clothing- I own most of these already, but perhaps others would derive similar enjoyment out of them that I already do.

• Want to play a game? (Thinkgeek) - An anti-nuclear weapon message with game theoretic implications can be found in the 1980s movie of Wargames. You can live your nostalgia, or your frustration with tic-tac-toe, with this shirt!
• Stand back (Thinkgeek) - Science does not always have to be the last resort.
• e by the numbers (Thinkgeek) - Just in case your forget exactly what you are exponentiating by when deriving the predicted probabilities of your log regression.

Toys

• Albert Einstein Action Figure (Thinkgeek) - He watches over my desk from afar.
• Levitating Desktop Globe (Thinkgeek)
• USB Laser Guided Missile Launcher (Thinkgeek) - Show your power in the office so you can demand more in your bargains over space.

Productivity

•  A second monitor - Another recommendation by Matt, multiple screens allows for more virtual workspace or procrastination.
• Camtasia - Software used to record Powerpoint and other documents as movies with a narration.  I plan on picking up this or similar software for teaching my online, winter class in January.
• Presentation Remote (Amazon) - Those of us who are active on the conference scene, given job talks, or even teaching will benefit from having a laser pointer as well as a remote to advance slides during a lecture.  My Logitech pointer has treated me well for several years and was worth the investment.

If you have more to add to the list, please do contribute.  I will likely add inspired suggestions, especially for the underdeveloped categories.

P.O.V.: Truth and Reconciliation in Chile

The PBS series, P.O.V., aired an excellent documentary Tuesday night called The Judge and The General.  This film tells the story of Juan Guzmán, a judge assigned to try criminal cases against members of Augusto Pinochet's regime in Chile.  Guzmán had been a supporter of Pinochet, and the film chronicles the information he uncovered while investigating these cases, and how he ultimately came to the realization that Pinochet's legal immunity from prosecution was a huge hurdle toward Chile's goal of truth and reconciliation.  From the P.O.V. synopsis:

The Judge and the General follows the twists and turns of the efforts of Guzmán and others to overcome Pinochet's immunity and his claims to be too ill, even too senile, to stand trial, and then his final defense — when significant proof had been gathered — that he had known nothing of the crimes. Was Pinochet, who died in 2006 while under house arrest, brought to justice in the eyes of society? Or did he escape being "touched," as his supporters jubilantly proclaim? What are the prospects for the cases against Pinochet underlings that are now under way? Most important, what are the prospects for Chile finding both truth and reconciliation through a legal accounting of its recent violent past?

A brief discussion of the film's finer points follows the jump.

The Dark Knight and Game Theory

If you have not already seen The Dark Knight, then you should read this post at a later time as to avoid spoilers after the jump.  Otherwise, follow the jump for a game theoretic discussion derived from the movie that has already broken two box office records for both best midnight opening and top first day revenue.  I personally enjoyed the movie immensely, but that discussion does not follow.

So, officially, consider this a spoiler alert for what follows.

Pax Corleone

I could not pass up this article posted on The Monkey Cage yesterday.  Hulsman and Mitchell use the movie The Godfather as an analogy for post-9/11 America and each one of the Vito's potential heirs represents a different theoretical path for America. 

The article is an interesting treatment of the subject, though not entirely novel.  My advisor, for example, has assigned it in the past as intro to international relations course to dissect these similar themes.  However, it is good to have it as a formal analysis of the topic and offers a decent bridge between popular media and academic theories; hopefully ,it won't give away too many answers for potential students.